Lockdown Crime Trends Timeline: How Each Phase Influenced Criminal Behaviour

It’s been over two months of life in lockdown and, as we’ve progressed through each phase, Blue has noted several shifts in the way criminals operate. From the modus operandi and the peak time of day, to the kind of premises targeted and the types of crimes committed, it is evident how each phase of lockdown has influenced criminal behaviour in our crime trends timeline.

The Days Before Lockdown

Our crime trend analysis starts with the days before lockdown commenced. Lockdown was announced on the 23 March and the next day Blue saw a more than 50% drop in the number of incidents recorded. The numbers remained at this lower level before spiking again on the 26 March – the day before lockdown began.

The First 21 Days of Lockdown

With a nation in shutdown, we entered a territory unknown and could only guess the impact lockdown would have on crime levels. During those initial seven days of lockdown we saw:
• A decrease in serious and violent crime in the Durban area, and
• crimes like housebreaking and trespassing continued unabated across several suburbs.
On an ordinary day, before the national lockdown, it was not unusual for our team to respond to several serious and violent crimes daily. However, over that initial period, Blue saw an estimated 30% to 40% drop in the number of incidents usually reported to us on any given week. As we neared the end of the 21day lockdown period lockdown we began to see reports of home invasions coming in. It appeared that criminals were not deterred by the regulations and we saw a spate of home invasions occurring over the Easter weekend.
That final week of that 21-day period, we detected a rooftop crime trend in which criminals were targeting businesses – seeking entry via or fleeing across the roof of commercial buildings. Nine incidents where this modus operandi was used, were reported over a period of four days in the Umbilo, Kingsburgh, Prospecton, Pinetown, and Botha’s Hill areas.

The Two-Week Lockdown Extension

Durban was hit by multiple armed robberies and businesses began to bear the brunt of lockdown regulations, with goods such as cigarettes and alcohol on the top of criminals’ ‘shopping’ lists. A calm before the storm – we experienced a drastic decrease in incidents before the number of incidents spiked again towards the end of April:
• Incidents involving theft rose significantly,
• outbuildings, such as garages and sheds, became a common target for criminals, and
• heavy-duty tools, spare parts and batteries for vehicles, external lights and extension cords were amongst the most commonly stolen items.

Level 4 of Lockdown

Level 4 came into action as of 1 May and day one saw another significant dip in the number of reported incidents. However, the introduction of level 4 regulations brought on new security risks for residents to consider and the lull in crime levels did not last long as we progressed through the month:
• Banned items, such as alcohol, were once again top of criminals’ lists as a Pinetown business fell victim to an armed gang’s liquor looting spree,
• we experienced chaos on Crompton street as Pinetown protestors stoned vehicles,
• businesses remained the common target for criminals, with many empty schools and churches falling victim to thieves, and
•criminals continuously disregarded the curfew, targeting businesses during the early hours of the morning.
Well into May, Tracker released their vehicle crime stats and we saw that since level 4 regulations were implemented, vehicle crime began rapidly returning to pre-lockdown levels. Tracker also revealed that pre-COVID19, the stats for vehicle theft and hijackings were 50/50, however during the initial lockdown the numbers slanted with an average 63/37% split towards hijackings. When the lockdown was extended, the stats evened out once again, most likely due to an increase in vehicle movement, after an easing in restrictions.
Towards the end of May, we experienced an increase in both commercial and residential break-ins and the number of violent crimes reported rose as we approached level 3 lockdown:
• A truck driver was stabbed multiple times trying to shake Umbilo armed robbers, and
• A teacher survived being stabbed in a Pinetown armed robbery.

Level 3 of Lockdown

Crime spiked again on the first day of level 3 and once again new regulations brought us new security risks to consider. With a continued increase in crime levels during the first week of June, Blue predicts that the number of housebreakings and robberies will continue to rise over the month. Make sure you kick your security measures up a notch with our level 3 precautions.
As regulations ease with each new level, remember to always be vigilant, practice caution, and keep yourself and your loved ones informed with our latest stats, trends and safety measures.